The Tony Awards 2026: Who will and who should win?
Mickey-Jo Theatre makes his predictions on who will — and who should — win on theatre’s biggest night ahead of the June 7 ceremony at Radio City Music Hall.
Summary
- Theatre critic and influencer Mickey-Jo Theatre shares his predictions for 14 top Tony Awards categories
- The 2026 Tonys ceremony will take place June 7 at Radio City Music Hall with host P!nk
It’s that time of year again, when internet message boards, Hell’s Kitchen cocktail bars, and intermission bathroom lines alike are dominated by a single topic of conversation: who’s going to win at the Tony Awards.
The nominations for 2026 were announced earlier this month, with new musicals Schmigadoon! and The Lost Boys leading the pack, each earning 12, closely followed by the revival of Ragtime (11) as well as Death of a Salesman, The Rocky Horror Show, and Cats: The Jellicle Ball (9 each).
Though it’s been characterized by some as a quieter year for Broadway, plenty of categories prove how tough the competition enduringly is, with many of these races to the spinning statuette too close to call. Regardless, I’ve done my best to bring you my predictions, as well as my personal manifestations, for what’s going to happen.
Get tickets to Tony Award-nominated shows now.
Best Play
What will win: Mark Rosenblatt’s debut play Giant from London, depicting the creeping monstrosity of author Roald Dahl, seems primed to take this one.
What should win: Liberation, which already picked up a Pulitzer for its scorching conversation between historic and contemporary feminism.
Should have been nominated: It’s a testament to the enduring cultural difference between London and New York audiences that Punch by James Graham won the Olivier but missed out a nomination here.
Best Musical
What will win: If I have to commit to a winner, it’s Schmigadoon!, especially because years when the race is this tight (and tonally varied) are often won by the lighthearted, comedic shows.
What should win: Not just because I’m British, I’m unashamedly rooting for Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), which has never been better than it is right now on Broadway.
Best Revival of a Play
What will win: Did you know that three different productions of Death of a Salesman have won Best Revival at the Tonys? At some point, you have to look at statistics.
What should win: Though it’s only conceptually a revival, Robert Icke’s Oedipus deserves recognition as one of those intense theatrical experiences its audiences won't soon forget.
Best Revival of a Musical
What will win: I grow ever more convinced that Ragtime could win this, if only because of the surprising amount of theatregoers newly discovering it and its undeniable pertinence a century on from its setting.
What should win: If we’re really talking about revivals, and reinvention, nothing else even enters the conversation alongside the ingenious Cats: The Jellicle Ball.
Best Direction of a Play
- Nicholas Hytner: Giant
- Robert Icke: Oedipus
- Kenny Leon: The Balusters
- Joe Mantello: Death of a Salesman
- Whitney White: Liberation
Who will win: I’m anticipating that Joe Mantello scores his first Tony win in over two decades for his direction at the Winter Garden.
Who should win: When considering really tremendous direction, I can’t get past Robert Icke’s forensic, intensely character-driven work on Oedipus.
Best Direction of a Musical
- Michael Arden: The Lost Boys
- Lear deBessonet: Ragtime
- Christopher Gattelli: Schmigadoon!
- Tim Jackson: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
- Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Who will win: I think this year’s director race is between the revivals, and further to my above thoughts, it stands to reason that Lear deBessonet will be awarded for Ragtime.
Who should win: I’ve been ready to personally hand Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch the Tony since the entrance of Bustopher Jones off Broadway.
Best Leading Actress in a Play
- Rose Byrne: Fallen Angels
- Carrie Coon: Bug
- Susannah Flood: Liberation
- Lesley Manville: Oedipus
- Kelli O’Hara: Fallen Angels
Who will win: Performances in earlier, concluded runs can find themselves at a disadvantage, but Lesley Manville’s already Olivier Award-winning performance in Oedipus was unforgettable.
Who should win: I actually think Susannah Flood earned this one by the end of Liberation’s prologue.
Best Leading Actor in a Play
- Will Harrison: Punch
- Nathan Lane: Death of a Salesman
- John Lithgow: Giant
- Daniel Radcliffe: Every Brilliant Thing
- Mark Strong: Oedipus
Who will win: Having already beaten out some of the same competition for an Olivier Award win, I think this will go to Giant’s John Lithgow.
Who should win: Having only seen 60% of this category’s nominees, I’d give it to Lithgow.
Should have been nominated: He inarguably would have had a better chance in the featured category, but it’s a shame not to see James Corden’s hysterical turn in Art remembered.
Best Leading Actor in a Musical
- Nicholas Christopher: Chess
- Luke Evans: The Rocky Horror Show
- Joshua Henry: Ragtime
- Sam Tutty: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
- Brandon Uranowitz: Ragtime
Who will win: This is, actually, the category in which I have the most certainty, as there’s no doubt in my mind Joshua Henry wins for his performance in Ragtime.
Who should win: Those who have had the good fortune to see Henry as Coalhouse Walker Jr. will understand the gravitas, power, and soulfulness that have earned him this year’s Tony.
Best Leading Actress in a Musical
- Sara Chase: Schmigadoon!
- Stephanie Hsu: The Rocky Horror Show
- Caissie Levy: Ragtime
- Marla Mindelle: Titanique
- Christiani Pitts: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Who will win: In another of this year’s toughest races, most that I’ve spoken to concur that Caissie Levy wins for her passionate portrayal of Ragtime’s Mother.
Who should win: I didn’t expect to leave Schmigadoon! rooting for Sara Chase, but she’s got my vote.
Should have been nominated: Beaches star Jessica Vosk gets closer to a real heavyweight star turn than anyone else in a musical this season, and she didn’t deserve to be snubbed along with the show itself.
Best Featured Actor in a Play
- Christopher Abbott: Death of a Salesman
- Danny Burstein: Marjorie Prime
- Brandon J. Dirden: Waiting for Godot
- Alden Ehrenreich: Becky Shaw
- Ruben Santiago-Hudson: Joe Turner's Come and Gone
- Richard Thomas: The Balusters
Who will win: There’s something about Alden Ehrenreich’s performance in Becky Shaw that lingers in the mind, and any supporting turn that almost feels like a leading one has a leg up on the competition.
Who should win: Ruben Santiago-Hudson gives the kind of performance in Joe Turner’s Come and Gone that reminds you why we have Tony Awards.
Best Featured Actress in a Play
- Betsy Aidem: Liberation
- Marylouise Burke: The Balusters
- Aya Cash: Giant
- Laurie Metcalf: Death of a Salesman
- June Squibb: Marjorie Prime
Who will win: If I learned anything from watching Desperate Housewives in my childhood, it’s never to bet against Laurie Metcalf.
Who should win: The real answer is the entire supporting cast of Liberation, but Betsy Aidem is the right person to take home the trophy on their behalf.
Should have been nominated: We could talk about Proof’s Kara Young or Becky Shaw’s Linda Emond, but the one that truly baffles me is Dog Day Afternoon’s glorious supporting turn from Jessica Hecht.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
- Shoshana Bean: The Lost Boys
- Hannah Cruz: Chess
- Rachel Dratch: The Rocky Horror Show
- Ana Gasteyer: Schmigadoon!
- Nichelle Lewis: Ragtime
Who will win: Few have paid their dues on Broadway without a Tony to show for it for as long as Shoshana Bean, and this could be her year.
Who should win: I’d be giddily excited to see rising star Hannah Cruz not only nominated for providing the best 15 minutes of a 2-and-a-half-hour neon fever dream, but winning the thing.
Should have been nominated: How I longed for some feline representation from the moving “Tempress” Chasity Moore or the vivacious Emma Sofia of Cats: The Jellicle Ball.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
- Ali Louis Bourzgui: The Lost Boys
- André De Shields: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
- Bryce Pinkham: Chess
- Ben Levi Ross: Ragtime
- Layton Williams: Titanique
Who will win: André de Shields’s entrance in Cats: The Jellicle Ball is met with an obligatory standing ovation, which feels like a precursor to a Tony win, but I wouldn’t count out Ali Louis Bourzgui.
Who should win: I’ve been bitten by Bourzgui’s raspy, vampiric drawl in The Lost Boys, and I can’t stop thinking about his performance.
Should have been nominated: A Tony nomination feels inevitable for Schmigadoon!’s Max Clayton — just a question of when.
Best Original Score
- Caroline Shaw: Death of a Salesman
- Steve Bargonetti: Joe Turner's Come and Gone
- The Rescues: The Lost Boys
- Cinco Paul: Schmigadoon!
- Jim Barne and Kit Buchan: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Who will win: The surprise eligibility of Schmigadoon!’s score is a game-changer here (most of the songs were previously written for TV), and between its charm and cleverness, it seems guaranteed to win.
Who should win: Schmigadoon! — it had me at “Corn Puddin’.”
Best Book of a Musical
- David Hornsby and Chris Hoch: The Lost Boys
- Cinco Paul: Schmigadoon!
- Tye Blue, Marla Mindelle, and Constantine Rousouli: Titanique
- Jim Barne and Kit Buchan: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Who will win: I reckon the photo finish here will be between Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) and Titanique, which ought not to be counted out.
Who should win: Romantic comedies often get a low art reputation, but they’re hard to get right, and Two Strangers is one of those rare musicals that is basically a great play in its own right.
Originally published on